Friday, May 22, 2009

Technology Deflation

For more than two centuries, growth and prosperity in Western Civilization has been dependent upon constant technological innovation. We take it for granted that there will always be faster, better, cheaper ways to make and do things.

One of the greatest technological innovations in living memory is the semiconductor, which famously doubles in capacity (or, alternatively, becomes half as expensive) every 18 months. This trend, calls Moore's Law, underlies countless innovations in our lives. That iPod that holds twice as many songs as the last model? Moore's Law. That PC that's half the size of the older one? Moore's Law.

Butwhat if Moore's Law had a limit? The CEO of SanDisk thinks we're about to hit that wall because - get this - semiconductors are shrinking to the point where they would need smaller electrons to get any smaller. And science has yet to figure out how to shrink electrons.


No comments:

Post a Comment